Why Israel is sitting out America’s fight with Iran — for now

In recent weeks, following the collapse of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has fired dozens of times on Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

At the same time, it has sustained fire from the U.S., whose military bases across the region have been targeted by the Islamic Republic, with several service members killed. And all the while, Tehran has targeted commercial ships transiting through the strait.

But as focus on the conflict with Iran has shifted from addressing the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions to the Strait of Hormuz, Israel has stayed out of the fighting — despite Iranian threats earlier this month to target the Jewish state if the U.S. attacks did not cease.

There is no upside for Israel to reenter the fight, especially when the issue of the Strait of Hormuz falls outside of the objectives set by Israel at the start of the war earlier this year. (This, despite the widespread sentiment among Israelis that this year’s war did not improve Israel’s security situation, according to polling last month from the Israel Democracy Institute.)

Key among the goals laid out by Israel was degrading Iran’s ballistic missile program and setting back elements of its nuclear program. Reopening Hormuz is an American objective, not an Israeli one. With Israel having made the calculus that the most immediate Iranian threats have been blunted — at least in the short term — the current mission has become an American one.

“Israel’s best move is to not move — yet,” Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Jewish Insider this morning. “Washington does the striking. Israel keeps its fire and its threats in reserve, waiting for one of two triggers: a U.S. request to join, or an Iranian regime foolish enough to hit Israel and invite the reprisal that has been promised.”

Despite Iran’s threats to target Israel, such a move would likely be a strategic misstep for the Islamic Republic. Iran’s blockade of the strait and its attacks on Arab and Gulf states are an attempt to reassert its dominance over the region and demonstrate its ability to impact the global energy market. Tehran also appears to be betting that sustained attacks across the region will push Arab states to pressure the U.S. to accept an agreement to reopen the strait, handing the Islamic Republic a win.

In that sense, Tehran is calibrating its escalation according to the expected retaliation, knowing that Arab states are, unlike Israel, hesitant to respond with military action.

One week ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking in Dimona, drew a line in the sand. “I have one message for Iran’s leaders: Do not count on there being calm if you attack us,” Netanyahu said. “Do not expect a repeat of what happened before, because there will be no repeat. The previous response was powerful enough, but any further attempt to harm us will be met with a different response — far more powerful.”

Thus far, the Arab states have shown little indication that they intend to escalate to match Iran’s attacks, and will not retaliate with a proportional response (or even a disproportionate response). But with the intermittent fire, Iran keeps the region on edge and Hormuz closed for business.

The question many Israelis are asking is how much longer the domestic quiet will continue. But unless Iran directly strikes Israel or acts in a way that compromises Jerusalem’s interests, there is little appetite in Israel to transform what has become a U.S. effort to reopen shipping routes into another round of intensive fighting between Iran and Israel. For now, Israel’s restraint is less about hesitation, and more of a calculation that deterrence, rather than direct military engagement, will serve Jerusalem’s interests in the long term.